Analysis of EB-1 Approval/Denial Statistics for 2010 and 2011

The American Immigration Lawyers Association has recently posted approval/denial statistics for EB-1 petitions processed at the Nebraska and Texas Service Centers.  An analysis of these numbers reveals some trends and outcomes that may be of interest to our readers.

Below are the data for EB1A and EB1B from each of the two Service Centers.  The 2011 numbers are current as of July 19, 2011.  We shall begin with EB1A:

Nebraska

2010:   Receipts = 1,008         Approvals = 846         Denials = 818              RFE = 992

2011:   Receipts = 840            Approvals = 408         Denials = 338              RFE = 416

Texas

            2010:   Receipts = 4,406         Approvals = 2,426      Denials = 1,323           RFE = 1,791

2011:   Receipts = 3,237         Approvals = 1,703      Denials = 938              RFE = 1,411

Curiously, the combined approvals and denials for 2010 at the Nebraska Service Center (“NSC”) outnumber the received cases by a significant amount.  Thus it can be presumed that these approval and denial numbers for all categories also include some cases that were received in the previous year.  Because of this uncertainty regarding the total number of cases that this data is drawn from, ultimate conclusions comparing receipts vs. approval and denials cannot be made with any accuracy.  However, several useful conclusions can be drawn from approval/denial data we do have:

If the case was adjudicated by the NSC in 2010, an EB1A petitioner would have an approximate 51% chance of getting approved and an approximate 49% chance of getting denied.  If the same petitioner’s case was adjudicated by the Texas Service Center (“TSC”) in 2010, the petitioner would have an approximate 65% chance of getting approved and an approximate 35% chance of getting denied.  If the case was adjudicated in 2011, an EB1A petitioner at the NSC would have a 55% chance of getting approval and a 45% chance of getting a denial.  For those cases adjudicated in 2011 at the TSC, a petitioner would have a 65% chance of getting approved and a 35% chance of getting denied.  For both years, an EB1A petitioner would have fared better at the TSC by at least a 10% margin.

Below are the numbers for EB1B:

Nebraska

2010:   Receipts = 1,015         Approvals = 1,208      Denials = 232              RFE = 541

2011:   Receipts = 715            Approvals = 594         Denials = 90                RFE = 226

Texas

            2010:   Receipts = 2,492         Approvals = 2,014      Denials = 91                RFE = 438

2011:   Receipts = 1,856         Approvals = 1,637      Denials = 100              RFE = 458

Similar to the EB1A data above, the 2010 category for the NSC has far more combined approvals and denials than receipts, and therefore it must be presumed that all categories contain an unknown number of outcomes from the previous year.  Using the same analysis as above:

If an EB1B petitioner’s case was adjudicated in 2010 at the NSC, the petitioner would have an approximate 84% chance of getting approval and an approximate 16% chance of getting a denial.  If this petitioner’s case was adjudicated at the TSC, the petitioner would have a 96% chance of getting approval and a 4% chance of getting a denial.  For 2011 at the NSC, an EB1B petitioner would have an approximate 87% chance of getting approved and an approximate 13% chance of getting denied.  If the petitioner’s case was adjudicated at the TSC in 2011, the petitioner would have roughly a 94% chance of approval and a 6% chance of denial.  Again, a petitioner has a slightly better chance of getting approved at the TSC than the NSC.

Conclusion

In all categories, a petitioner has a slightly better chance of getting approved at the TSC when compared to the NSC.  However, it should be noted that the strength of the case itself would far outweigh any statistical data presented in this article.  Additionally, a petitioner should consider that the TSC has significantly longer processing times due to its higher caseload.  Under current posted processing times, the TSC is adjudicating EB1A’s and EB1B’s approximately 4 months slower than the NSC.  Of course, these processing times are moot for cases being processed via premium processing, but all of these factors should be given due consideration when petitioning for an EB1A or EB1B at either of the USCIS Service Centers.

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